Ken Paxton told a room full of Washington donors that President Trump’s war with Iran is wrecking his own Senate campaign, and someone taped it.
Quick Take
- Leaked audio shows Paxton blaming Trump’s Iran war and high gas prices for his falling poll numbers.
- Paxton called the fallout from the Dallas GOP convention “not good” for himself and other Republicans.
- A separate leaked recording has Paxton complaining that Washington operatives control his campaign messaging.
- National polls show most Americans blame Trump for rising gas prices tied to the war.
- Paxton has stayed publicly loyal to Trump even while venting privately about the war’s political cost.
What Paxton Said Behind Closed Doors
The New York Times obtained audio from a small fundraiser in Washington, D.C., last month. Paxton can be heard telling donors and lobbyists that the Republican midterm convention in Dallas hurt him. “So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,” he said. The convention featured Trump front and center.
Axios later obtained a separate clip from the same circle of recordings. In it, Paxton points directly at the war itself and the pain at the pump. “It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” he told the group when asked what issues were dragging him down. That’s not spin from a rival campaign. That’s the candidate himself, talking to his own donors.
Why Gas Prices Keep Showing Up In The Polls
Paxton’s private complaint lines up with what pollsters keep finding nationwide. A PBS News survey found 63 percent of Americans blame Trump for higher gas prices, including more than one in five Republicans. A separate Reuters poll put that number even higher, at 77 percent of registered voters saying Trump bears at least some responsibility for the spike tied to the Iran conflict.
Paxton isn’t alone in feeling the squeeze. A Reuters review found that in a dozen competitive races, vulnerable Republicans either voted to limit Trump’s war powers or publicly called for the fighting to end, pointing to gas prices and tight household budgets as the reason. The war has become a real liability, not just a talking point for Democrats.
Public Loyalty, Private Frustration
None of this means Paxton has turned against Trump in public. He told Fox News Digital he backed the president’s strikes, known as Operation Epic Fury, and said he didn’t expect a long, drawn-out war like the one fought by another Texan, former President George W. Bush. When reporters pressed him after the strikes, Paxton stood by Trump’s actions without hedging.
🇺🇸Texas is supposed to be Republican home turf. Yet Trump is heading back for his third visit in a month as Ken Paxton trails Democrat James Talarico in the Senate race. When a stronghold needs this many presidential rescue missions, the campaign has a problem.
Talarico leads by… pic.twitter.com/GvRHp6dxjJ
— OMNIS (@project_omnis) October 7, 2026
The New York Times also noted that in the Texas race, Paxton “has avoided any daylight” with Trump, unlike some Republicans elsewhere who have started distancing themselves. That’s the tightrope. Stand with Trump publicly to keep the base energized, while privately admitting the war and gas prices are bleeding away support he needs to win in November.
A third leaked recording, this one obtained by Politico, adds another layer. Paxton reportedly complained that his campaign is effectively being run by Republicans in Washington rather than his own team. Taken together, the tapes paint a picture of a candidate who feels boxed in by forces outside his control, even as he keeps backing the president who put him there.
Brookings researchers have argued the Iran war has widened cracks between MAGA loyalists and more establishment-minded Republicans heading into the midterms. Paxton’s own words now sit at the center of that argument. He isn’t rejecting Trump. He’s simply stating, out loud and on tape, that the war’s price tag at the gas pump is a real problem his campaign has to answer for.
Sources:
rawstory.com, nytimes.com, tpr.org, thehill.com, nypost.com, sacurrent.com, newrepublic.com
