Maine Poll Shows Conflicting Information

( – Political polls, especially in an election year, can show some interesting trends. Sometimes, the results aren’t as cut and dry as they appear at first glance. This is the case with a recent poll conducted in Maine, in which former President Donald Trump appears to have a narrow advantage over his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden.

Maine has been a solidly blue state for the last 36 years. In 2020, Biden took the state by securing 53.1% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. This time around, according to a Critical Insights poll, Trump is showing a one-percent lead, 41% to 40% — that is if Maine decided its electoral votes the conventional way.

However, Maine uses rank-choice voting, a system where voters are asked to assign an ordinal rank to their preferred candidates. A person’s first choice is counted in the first round. If no single candidate secures a majority of the vote after the first round, the candidate in last place is eliminated from contention. At that time, the second-place choice of all voters who voted for that person will be added to the tally of all remaining candidates. This process continues until one candidate wins more than 50% of the votes. Considering this method, the poll shows Biden retaking the lead 52% to 49%.

Respondents also weighed in on several issues other than who they were planning to vote for in the upcoming November general elections. Voters on both sides of the aisle said they were concerned about the economy. While Republicans are worried about immigration, Democrats are more concerned about the environment and gun control.

The poll had 609 responders, a 4% sample error, and a 95% confidence level.

As of June 16, Real Clear Polling’s overall average shows Trump leading Biden by less than one point. Likewise, the latest 538/ABC News polling average shows Trump leading Biden by 1.1 points, 41.2% to 40.0%.

~Here’s to Our Liberty!

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